Why the ‘1% of Global Emissions’ Argument Doesn’t Hold Up, Climate Scientists Say

The claim that countries responsible for only a small share of global greenhouse gas emissions should not be expected to cut pollution has become increasingly common among political leaders.

However, climate scientists argue that the reasoning ignores historical emissions, economic responsibility and the cumulative impact of every tonne of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

Politicians Use ‘1% of Emissions’ Claim to Oppose Climate Action

When he was UK prime minister in 2023, Rishi Sunak questioned whether Britain should make further emissions cuts.

“When our share of global emissions is less than 1%,” Rishi Sunak argued when he was the UK prime minister in 2023, “how can it be right that British citizens are now being told to sacrifice even more than others?”

Similar arguments have been made by political leaders around the world.

In 2019, Australia’s then prime minister Scott Morrison pointed to Australia’s 1.3% share of global emissions to argue the country was already “doing our bit” to tackle climate change.

More recently, German chancellor Friedrich Merz highlighted Germany’s 2% share of global emissions while backing loopholes in European climate targets. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni also referenced the European Union’s 6% share of emissions when discussing climate policy.

Former UK prime minister Tony Blair echoed the argument during a radio interview in May, using the UK’s 1% share of global emissions to argue for abandoning clean economy targets.

Scientists Say Historical Emissions Matter More

Although countries such as the United States, China and India currently produce just over half of the world’s annual carbon emissions, climate experts say focusing only on present-day emissions gives a misleading picture.

Scientists point out that global warming is driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases over time. Wealthier industrialised nations have contributed far more to historical emissions than many developing countries and generally have greater financial resources to reduce pollution.

European nations have historically produced disproportionately high emissions on a per-person basis. Only in recent years have their annual emissions fallen closer to the global average.

Prof Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, criticised the argument.

“These leaders wouldn’t like it if the top 1% of their wealthiest citizens didn’t pay their taxes, so the argument is fallacious and simply buck-passing,” said Prof Piers Forster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. “Future warming is driven by future emissions, so every tonne of carbon dioxide that a country or citizen can avoid emitting will improve temperature and heatwave outcomes for generations.”

Every Country’s Emissions Add Up

The United States, China and India were the only individual countries responsible for more than 5% of fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2024.

However, while each of the other 194 countries contributed less than 5% individually, together they accounted for just under half of the world’s annual carbon emissions.

Scientists argue this demonstrates why emissions reductions are needed across all nations rather than focusing solely on the largest emitters.

Nationalist Parties Increasingly Use the Argument

The “small share of emissions” narrative has increasingly been adopted by nationalist and populist political parties across Europe.

According to new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), there were around 200 examples of this argument appearing in national newspapers across 27 countries responsible for less than 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions during the past year.

One example cited was a March 2025 editorial in The Times, which stated:

“Climate change is clearly a problem, yet Britain, which contributes around 1% of global emissions, can do little to stop it.”

Public Opinion Divided Over Climate Responsibility

A YouGov poll commissioned by the ECIU in April found that one in four people in Britain believed countries responsible for less than 1% of global emissions should stop trying to reduce them.

Support for that view was highest among Reform UK voters, with around half agreeing that such countries should no longer cut emissions.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also argued in a BBC interview last year that it was “absolutely mindless” for a country producing less than 1% of global carbon dioxide emissions to “beggar itself”.

Experts Say Every Nation Must Help Reach Net Zero

Climate scientists stress that reducing emissions globally remains essential regardless of each country’s current share.

Dr Ella Gilbert, a climate scientist and ECIU board member, said international cooperation is necessary to slow climate change.

“The climate crisis is a global problem and every country should be acting to reduce emissions and build a greener global economy, especially those with the largest historical responsibility, like the UK. The climate doesn’t care where carbon comes from – whether [it’s] from multiple countries responsible for smaller proportions of emissions, or China.”

Gilbert added that scientific evidence shows achieving net zero emissions is the only way to stabilise the climate and reduce the risk of dangerous climate tipping points.

“The UK may account for just 1% of current global emissions, but we’re responsible for 100% of our own emissions, and we have the opportunity to show global leadership by bringing them down.”

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